
Analysts: PS3 Slim Positioned to Make Trouble for Wii, Xbox 360
August 19, 2009 | 3:52 PM PST

So, we all know the story by now about the PS3 Slim: to crush their enemies, see them driven before them, hear the lamentations of their women, etc., etc. With the long, long-awaited price cut now in play, it is now the industry's analysts' turn to tell what they think will come as we head forward into the holiday season.
Jesse Divnich of EEDAR says that Sony is now "finally" in a position to be competitive, and offers some praise for the hardware: "In terms of value, the PlayStation 3 is a superior hardware product in comparison to the Xbox 360," he states.
But even so, he knows that hardware alone won't turn things around for Sony overnight, as there are other factors at play. "Nevertheless," he says, "the PlayStation 3 price cut will act as a positive catalyst that will close the sales gap between the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360."
Meanwhile, Everyone's Favorite Analyst from Wedbush Morgan, Michael Pachter, believes that while the price cut will break the depressed trend the PlayStation 3 has been facing, it will still need to do even more than that. "Last year, the PS3 averaged around 240,000 per month in the January – October period, while this year, it's averaging closer to 135,000 for the last several months," he notes.
"There is no question that a 25 percent price cut will drive sales way above this 135,000 level, but the acid test is whether sales rise above the 240,000 level," he adds. "I think it's likely that sales go to 240,000, which will look like a 60 percent gain, but am not as sure that sales will go higher than that until holiday."
Meanwhile, Todd Mitchell of Kaufman Bros. believes Sony is likely to push "aggressive promotions" in order to clear out the old model of PlayStation 3, and could lead to a sales increase to around 140,000 in the fall, leading into the holiday season when he expects a "modest push" will occur.
He also believes that software, particularly big multiplatform titles such as Modern Warfare 2 could benefit from Sony's move. But EEDAR disagrees, arguing that software sales won't be impacted so significantly as to offset the industry's current downward trend.
"Even if the price cuts from both systems increase hardware sales by over 1 million units through the next six months, that would likely add an additional $200 million to the software bucket and would only increase 2009 sales by about 2 percent over current trend; hardly a significant boost," Divnich states. "The true benefit to software sales from a hardware price cut are typically realized in the long-term, [not] over the short-term."
Looking to Sony's rivals, Pachter believes Microsoft is going to wait and see how things play out before making any sudden moves. "Last year, they sold around the same 240,000 per month, so if they see sales drop to 150,000 or below, I think that they will likely respond with a $50 cut in mid-November," he predicts. "If they continue to sell more than 200,000, they will probably wait till early next year, maybe even until E3."
Once again the contrarian, Divnich believes that Microsoft could respond as early as next week with a confirmation of the rumored drop of the Pro SKU, and its replacement with the Elite. But at the same time, he only considers it a "pseudo price drop," in that "It is no different from Lexus introducing their 2010 models at the 2009 prices and clearing out their 2009 inventories."
As for the Wii, everyone seems to agree that Nintendo's golden child is the one at greatest risk in the face of this adversity. Mitchell says they are "struggling to keep the Wii relevant," while Pachter thinks the pressure on them will only increase with both next-gen consoles retailing at only fifty dollars more.
"I think that they may see sales suffer, and certainly will see sales down year-over-year," Pachter said. "So we have to see if they cut, unbundle and cut, or rebundle (with Wii Sports Resort plus Wii Motion Plus)."
"They're hard to figure out," he admits.
"While the target audience for the two platforms varies greatly, some consumers will face a tough decision to purchase the Wii with outdated processing power or the PlayStation 3 with a built-in Blu-Ray player," Divnich says. "However, the market size of those actually debating between a PlayStation 3 and a Nintendo Wii is relatively small."
Divnich believes, however, that Sony's cut will establish a "new standard" for the pricing of next-gen consoles going forward, at least for the next year.
"Both Sony and Microsoft are acting like 12th round boxers, so exhausted (in this case, financially exhausted) over the three year battle for next-generation supremacy that neither are likely to deviate from the $299 price point for some time," he explains. "It is possible that both consoles may reach a $249 price point 12 months from now, but that will likely be the lowest prices will get in the next two years."
He adds that with the prices of all three major platforms now on par with one-another, the focus on their differences will now increase while the companies behind them will attempt to create extra value through services.
"Both will continue to increase the size of their hard-drives and likely add additional hardware and software features to appeal to consumers," Divnich said, with an ideal example being that in 2011, Sony and Microsoft may eventually include their new motion controllers standard with their console packages.
People have referred to the past three years as a console war, but now, war is just beginning.
source: Gamasutra
















